This year’s rally has defied a lot of conventional wisdom. Slowing job growth, persistent policy uncertainty, and a resurgent conflict in the Middle East would typically give investors pause. Instead, markets have climbed to new highs.

We examine why in our Q3 2026 Market Commentary.1 The short answer: Corporate earnings have continued to surprise to the upside. Second-quarter S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to grow approximately 24% year-over-year, marking one of the strongest corporate profit cycles of the past decade.

Our report also looks at how record profit margins, a stabilizing labor market, and a new chapter at the Federal Reserve are shaping the outlook for the second half of 2026. Topics include:

  • Why earnings, not speculation, have driven this year’s market gains
  • What record profit margins reveal about corporate resilience
  • How AI infrastructure spending is reshaping free cash flow at mega-cap tech
  • Why a stabilizing labor market and moderating inflation support the outlook
  • What history says about markets in a midterm election year

If you have $500,000 or more, fill out the form to get your free report today!

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